@Article{AnjosSouAmaIgaTol:2021:FuPrTe,
               author = "Anjos, Luciano J. S. and Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de and Amaral, 
                         Calil Torres and Igawa, Tassio Koiti and Toledo, Peter Mann de",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal Rural da Amaz{\^o}nia (UFRA)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Par{\'a} (UFPA)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Par{\'a} (UFPA)} and {Universidade Federal do 
                         Par{\'a} (UFPA)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Future projections for terrestrial biomes indicate widespread 
                         warming and moisture reduction in forests up to 2100 in South 
                         America",
              journal = "Global Ecology and Conservation",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "25",
                pages = "e01441",
                month = "jan.",
             keywords = "CMIP6 scenarios, Temperature increase, Moisture loss, Climatic 
                         crisis.",
             abstract = "Terrestrial biomes are the main reservoirs of biodiversity and CO2 
                         on the planet. In South America, they play a crucial role in 
                         climate regulation and biodiversity conservation. Despite 
                         scientific advances and recent efforts, there is still no detailed 
                         analysis of trends in surface air temperature and precipitation 
                         changes until the end of the 21st century and magnitude of change 
                         for South Americas terrestrial biomes. In this study, we used the 
                         annual mean of temperature and annual cumulative precipitation 
                         variables provided by WorldClim (version 2.1) from an ensemble of 
                         five Global Circulation Models from the most recent simulations of 
                         the CMIP6 project. We used four-time intervals between 2020 and 
                         2100, combined at two climatic trajectories (SSP2-4.5 and 
                         SSP5-8.5), to map climate change scenarios trend magnitude in 
                         South America. Also, we evaluate the exposure level of the nine 
                         terrestrial biomes according to their respective vegetal cover 
                         densities. Our results indicate that in the two possible futures 
                         evaluated (SSP2-4.5 \& SSP5-8.5), the terrestrial biomes of South 
                         America would be exposed to climatic conditions that are not 
                         analogous to the current ones. The results indicate a persistent 
                         and long-term annual temperature trend increase, indistinctly for 
                         all terrestrial biomes and a significant moisture reduction in 
                         forest biomes. The consolidation of such climate scenarios can 
                         make potentially modify water and carbon cycling patterns and 
                         promoting biodiversity loss, mainly at forest biomes, with 
                         probably more severe effects under the pessimistic scenario.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01441",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01441",
                 issn = "2351-9894",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "anjos_future.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}